Bundesliga championship race layouts 5 rounds to go. Now everything is in the hands of Borussia

The 30th round of the German championship starts, in which Borussia is suddenly in the first place: today Dortmund will take a new step towards the title in the match with Bochum.

In the last round there was a new gift from Bayern. The Munich team burned out on the road to Mainz: Sadio Mane scored first, but in the second half the Bavarians suddenly conceded 3. And limply: the Munich team had 0 shots from the 60th minute to the 91st, it was during this time that 1:0 turned into 1 :3.

Now Borussia control the race, but the chances of Bayern’s title are still 63%

Dortmund beat the competitor by one point. The goal difference and the statistics of personal meetings are in favor of Bayern (2:2 and 4:2), so Borussia will not be satisfied with the equality of points.

The teams have three home games and two away games ahead.

Mainz will now test the strength of Borussia. Dortmund also have a game with a strong Wolfsburg and a struggling Bochum.

Bayern have serious rivals Leipzig. All other teams from the bottom half of the table, including games with the two main outsiders (Schalke and Hertha).

The statistical model of FiveThirtyEight still believes more in Bayern anyway: the Munich championship is estimated at 63%, Dortmund’s chances are 36%, the rest of the teams have less than one.

The FiveThirtyEight model conducts simulations of championship matches based on the rating of teams, which is calculated according to a complex scheme: the results of previous years, the cost of the squad, xG, and even tournament motivation are taken into account.

Tuchel has as many defeats in 7 matches as Nagelsmann has in an entire season

The move with the dismissal of Nagelsmann did not work, Bayern under Tuchel is a pain.

• Bayern Munich were knocked out of the Champions League, DFB-Pokal and have now lost the Bundesliga lead with five rounds to go.

• The team has not won 4 matches in a row – 2 losses and 2 draws.  

• Bayern score little. Very few: only 5 goals in six matches. The only surge came in the first game under Tuchel, when the Munich team beat Dortmund (4:2).

• Even more revealing numbers: Tuchel has 3 losses in seven games – the same number of losses Nagelsmann has lost in 37 games.

Bayern have not beaten Mainz away since 2020 – this is the third defeat in a row. But this is hardly easier for Tuchel – after the match, the coach seemed to take responsibility, but still drove through Muller:

“Thomas was not having his best day. His actions were pointless. He shot twice on goal when Cancelo was completely open.