March 22, 2023

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Could Chelsea be relegated from the Premier League?

Marcelo is back at Fluminense. The Brazilian is a graduate of the club, from there he moved to Real Madrid in 2007

Marcelo is back at Fluminense. The Brazilian is a graduate of the club, from there he moved to Real Madrid in 2007

Serious question.

Chelsea lost to Tottenham (0:2) and remained in 10th place in the Premier League. From the ninth, where Brentford are now, they are already 4 points behind, and in fact the opponents also have a match in hand.

The Graham Potter team is already 14 points away from the Champions League zone, but the relegation zone is noticeably closer – only 10 points. Can Chelsea really be relegated?

Opinion of the supercomputer: the probability of crash is minimal

The FiveThirtyEight statistical model gives a less than 1% chance of Chelsea being relegated. For comparison: 12th-placed Crystal Palace has 6%, Southampton from last place has 72%.

By the way, the probability of winning the championship and entering the Champions League is also less than 1%.

Let us briefly recall what FiveThirtyEight is. The model simulates championship matches based on the rating of teams, which is calculated according to a complex scheme ( you can read more about it here ): it takes into account the results of past years, the cost of the squad, xG, and even tournament motivation.

By the way, according to advanced statistics, Chelsea is not so bad. Based on expected points since the beginning of 2023, the team is in third place in the Premier League. Why are they missing? It’s a matter of poor implementation – the team scored 4 goals with 12.43 xG.

Nuance! Chelsea have a very difficult calendar

Perhaps the main argument for a possible sensational relegation of Chelsea is a complicated calendar until the end of the season.

Ahead are 4 teams from the big 6 and Newcastle, which are in the Champions League zone by points lost.

However, even matches against clubs from the relegation zone can be very difficult. In the last round, Chelsea lost to the main outsider of the Premier League, Southampton. Leeds, Everton, Wolves and Bournemouth are also very reluctant to be relegated.

When did Chelsea get relegated from the English top flight?

Chelsea were last relegated in the 1987/88 season. The team then played Steve Clark, Pat Nevin, the only foreigner from far abroad was the American Roy Wegerle, and the top scorer was the Scot Gordon Dury.

Only one season was enough to return to the elite. Chelsea won the second division with 99 points. In second place, by the way, finished Manchester City.

The current Blues’ oldest players, Cesar Azpilicueta and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, were born after Chelsea’s return to the Premier League. And Graham Potter has not yet begun his career as a football player – he was raised to the main team of Birmingham only in 1992.